Thursday, May 2, 2013

Mayor: San Pedro, Laguna


The Municipality of San Pedro, which had been declared by President Aquino as a city last March and Laguna's gateway to Metro Manila, has three candidates for mayor: the incumbent mayor Calixto Cataquiz, the incumbent vice mayor Norvic Solidum, and independent candidate Berlene Alberto. Alberto ran for the municipal council in 2010 but did not win a seat (with his 5,100 plus votes). But the contest seems to boil down between Catazquiz and Solidum.

Since no official survey is being conducted in San Pedro, we can compare the status of the two through social media. In the 2010 elections, social media reflected around 20% of the people's awareness and likability to vote for a candidate. The remaining 80% is through traditional campaigning like print media.


Incumbent Mayor Calixto Cataquiz:
Facebook - 942 likes (collective), 1437 friends
Twitter - 7 followers

Incumbent Vice Mayor Norvic Solidum:

Facebook - 266 likes (collective), 4896 friends
Twitter - 7 followers

It seems that they are even in Twitter. Facebook is where the battle rages. In likes, Cataquiz has 77.98% against Solidum's 22.02%. However, Solidum kicked back with friends at 77.31%. Cataquiz has 22.69%. Averaging the percentages, Cataquiz will have a slight advantage at 50.22% against Solidum's 49.78%. Still, as said earlier, this only forms 20% of the projected vote. I guess we should just wait and see what happens on May 13.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Vice Mayor: Marikina City, NCR

Montage of Marikina City from
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Marikina City, dubbed as the Shoe Capital of the Philippines because it produces around 70% of Made in RP shoes and one of the largest cities in the country in terms of population, has an easy victory for Mayor (he had two inactive independents to go against, almost like in Quezon City). The contest boils down for Vice Mayor, which has two candidates: incumbent vice mayor Jose Fabian Cadiz (who had a clinic besides McDonalds at Marcos Highway), and former vice mayor Marion Andres. What's more amusing in this contest is that they are both doctors.

Anyway, since no official survey is being conducted in Antipolo City, we can compare the status of the two through social media. In the 2010 elections, social media reflected around 20% of the people's awareness and likability to vote for a candidate. The remaining 80% is through traditional campaigning like print media.


Incumbent Vice Mayor Cadiz:
Facebook - 5048 friends
Twitter - N/A

Former Vice Mayor Andres:

Facebook - 5039 friends
Twitter - N/A

Since the two candidates apparently do not have Twitter presence, we can only have Facebook data.We can witness here that they are close, but Cadiz got a close advantage with 50.04%, against Andres with 49.96%. Still, as said earlier, this only forms 20% of the projected vote. Cadiz won a safe 57.91% in 2010, but that time, there were five candidates. If the votes of the other candidates were put into one, it would form 42.09% of the vote. Averaging the two percentages, Cadiz will win with 53.98% against Andres's 46.02%. It must also be taken in mind Andres's poor performance in his 2010 run for mayor (he only won 22.98%) and Cadiz's incumbency advantage. I guess we should just wait and see what happens on May 13.

Mayor: Quezon City, NCR

Montage of Quezon City from
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Quezon City, the largest city in the Philippines in terms of population and known as the New York of Asia (I guess this is not because it has New York, Cubao), is not as contested as it was in 2010. This year, only three candidates were vying for mayor: incumbent mayor Herbert Baustista, and independents John Charles Chang and Henry Samonte. Of the two independents, I see that Chang is the more serious candidate, so as he fielded the only opponent of the incumbent for vice mayor. Actually, Chang is one of the few local candidates of Ang Kapatiran party.

Chang ran for mayor in 2010 as well, but landed 6th of nine candidates (with 0.52% of the vote). In this year, if the independents rally around Chang (excluding Samonte), he may get around 5% to 6% of the vote.

I guess this is really a better victory for the incumbent than in 2010. Still, there might still be a few surprises in store for Quezon City. Let's just wait and see.


Mayor: Antipolo City, Rizal

Montage of Antipolo City from
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Antipolo City, the only suburban city of Metro Manila that achieved Highly Urbanized status (in 2011) and the seventh largest city in the country by population, has three candidates for mayor: the incumbent mayor Danilo Leyble, Rizal governor Casimiro Ynares III, and independent Jose Velasco. Velasco ran and lost for a seat in Antipolo's 2nd District Council, ranking 34th out of 43 candidates. But the contest seems to boil down between Leyble and Ynares.

Since no official survey is being conducted in Antipolo City, we can compare the status of the two through social media. In the 2010 elections, social media reflected around 20% of the people's awareness and likability to vote for a candidate. The remaining 80% is through traditional campaigning like print media.

Incumbent Mayor Danilo Leyble:
Facebook - 126 followers
Twitter - 501 followers

Rizal Governor Casimiro Ynares III:

Facebook - 300 followers (collective)
Twitter - 48 followers

It seems that Ynares got Facebook with 70.42% against Leyble's 29.58% but Leyble got Twitter with 89.62% against Ynares's 10.38%. Averaging the two percentages, Leyble will have 59.6% while Ynares 40.4%. Still, as said earlier, this only forms 20% of the projected vote. Ynares did win as Rizal governor in 2010, with Antipolo having around 30% share of the province's vote (he won with 73.23%).

Also, the incumbent Vice Mayor, Susan Garcia Say, sided with Ynares. She had more votes than Leyble in the 2010 elections. Leyble's opponent in 2010, former mayor Angelito Gatlabayan, also expressed support for Ynares. Gatlabayan had around 44% of the vote in the 2010 elections. I guess we should just wait and see what happens on May 13.